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Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
PredictionsMarkets

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?

$107K Vol.$112K LiquidityEnds Aug 31
$51,245
24h Volume
$106,899
Total Volume
$111,680
Liquidity
OutcomeChance
US
$13,978 Vol.
18%11%
France
$20,368 Vol.
9%2%
UK
$7,218 Vol.
8%2%
Germany
$55,914 Vol.
8%2%
Netherlands
$2,901 Vol.
7%2%
Italy
$3,010 Vol.
5%2%
Greece
$2,310 Vol.
3%
Australia
$1,200 Vol.
1%0.9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
Germany · Yes
Market
Amount
$
0.00 Shares
To win
Avg. Price 7.6¢
$0.00

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Market Summary

Market CreatorDoberTeam
CreatedJul 31
EndsAug 31
Market ID0xa316…b89c
Share Market