How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$44.9M Vol.$2.6M LiquidityEnds Dec 31

$84,835

24h Volume

$44,923,629

Total Volume

$2,579,820

Liquidity

OutcomeChance

0 (0 bps)

$6,388,605 Vol.

85%

1 (25 bps)

$2,215,424 Vol.

2 (50 bps)

$2,243,624 Vol.

3 (75 bps)

$2,232,425 Vol.

<1%

4 (100 bps)

$2,198,416 Vol.

<1%

6 (150 bps)

$3,733,075 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ bps)

$3,563,388 Vol.

<1%

5 (125 bps)

$2,445,538 Vol.

<1%

7 (175 bps)

$3,053,210 Vol.

<1%

8 (200 bps)

$3,096,446 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 bps)

$4,071,700 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 bps)

$4,753,689 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 bps)

$4,928,089 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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