How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$44.9M Vol.$2.6M LiquidityEnds Dec 31

$84,097

24h Volume

$44,922,045

Total Volume

$2,607,725

Liquidity

OutcomeChance

0 (0 bps)

$6,388,605 Vol.

85%

1 (25 bps)

$2,215,378 Vol.

2 (50 bps)

$2,243,516 Vol.

3 (75 bps)

$2,232,125 Vol.

<1%

4 (100 bps)

$2,198,188 Vol.

<1%

6 (150 bps)

$3,733,075 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ bps)

$3,562,553 Vol.

<1%

5 (125 bps)

$2,445,536 Vol.

<1%

7 (175 bps)

$3,053,196 Vol.

<1%

8 (200 bps)

$3,096,413 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 bps)

$4,071,693 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 bps)

$4,753,681 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 bps)

$4,928,088 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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